THEN, THERE IS THE FUNGUS Feb 1994 State Dept (DoS) analysis of Fusarium oxysporum in the Huallaga

R 182205Z FEB 94

11. THEN, THERE IS THE FUNGUS.

COCA GROWERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE ABANDONING THE UHV TO MOVE TO OTHER AREAS, GENERALLY ATTRIBUTE THE INDUSTRY S COLLAPSE IN THE UHV TO THE FUNGUS "FUSARIUM OXYSPORUM" (OR SOME VARIETY SIMILAR TO IT).

MANY CHARGE BITTERLY THAT THE FUNGUS IS A BIOLOGICAL WEAPON DEVELOPED AND DISSEMINATED BY "DEA" (SOME ACTUALLY ASSERT THEY WERE EYEWITNESSES TO DISPERSAL OF FUNGAL AGENTS FROM "DEA" HELICOPTERS IN THE UHV). THIS SOIL-BORNE FUNGUS COEXISTS WITH COCA IN THE UHV. IT IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH COCA IN OTHER AREAS WHERE COCA IS ENCOUNTERED. THERE IS AT THIS TIME LITTLE BASIS FOR A SCIENTIFICALLY VALID CONCLUSION AS TO WHETHER THE FUNGUS HAS, BY SOME MECHANISM YET UNEXPLAINED, BECOME MUCH MORE VIRULENT IN THIS LOCALIZED AREA; IS ONE MORE FACTOR ON THE LIST ABOVE THAT ARE FOUND IN COMBINATION IN THE UHV AND NOWHERE ELSE; OR WHETHER FUNGAL INFECTION AND PLANT WILT IS A RESULT, RATHER THAN A CAUSE, OF PRICE DECLINE, BAD AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES AND SOIL DEPLETION, AGING AVERAGE PLANT POPULATION (DUE, IN PART, TO SYSTEMATIC ERADICATION OF SEEDBEDS THAT MIGHT HAVE ALLOWED PLANT RENEWAL), AND CONSEQUENT ABANDONMENT OF CROPS BY GROWERS.

12. WE WILL NOT RECITE ARGUMENTS (OR INTERESTED GROUPS THAT CAN MAKE THEM) AS TO WHAT FACTOR OR FACTORS HAVE PRIMARY CREDIT FOR COLLAPSE OF THE UVH COCA AGROINDUSTRY. WE BELIEVE NO SINGLE FACTOR (NOT EVEN, UNFORTUNATELY, THE FUNGUS - IF THIS WERE ONLY TRUE, WE COULD RELAX AND LET NATURE SOLVE OUR COCAINE PROBLEM, BUT WE FEAR REALITY IS NOT SO SIMPLE) CAN BE RELIABLY INTERPRETED AS EXCLUSIVELY OR PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SITUATION DOCUMENTED BY THE 1993 COCA SURVEY. NOR, ON THE OTHER HAND, IS IT SUPPORTABLE TO ARGUE THAT ANY ONE OR MORE FACTORS CAN SAFELY BE DISCOUNTED) AS CONTRIBUTING IN SOME MATERIAL MEASURE OR MANNER TO THE DECLINE.

13. DOES SEEDBED ERADICATION WORK? IT MUST AT A MINIMUM BE RECOGNIZED AS ONE OF A SET OF AGENTS OR FACTORS THAT, IN COMBINATION, TORE OUT WHAT USED TO BE THE HEART OF THE ILLEGAL COCA INDUSTRY IN PERU. THERE IS NO WAY ITS INFLUENCE CAN BE ARGUED TO HAVE BEEN PERVERSE; PREVENTING ESTABLISHMENT OF NEW CULTIVATION AND RENEWAL OF AGING ESTABLISHED PLANT POPULATIONS TO THE EQUIVALENT OF OVER40,000 HECTARES CANNOT HELP BUT HAVE CONTRIBUTED MATERIALLY TO THE OVERALL DECLINE.

14. LOOKED AT ONE WAY, SEEDBED ERADICATION HAD ITS IMPACT. WHAT USED TO BE THE HEART OF THE INDUSTRY IS DYING. ITS SUSPENSION, ALONG WITH CESSATION OF LARGE-SCALE USG SUPPORT AT SANTA LUCIA, RECOGNIZES A SITUATION THAT CHANGED FUNDAMENTALLY SINCE 1990. THE SAME COCA SURVEY, HOWEVER, MAKES IT OBVIOUS THAT THINGS ARE NOT THAT SIMPLE. FOR ANOTHER YEAR, MAJOR INCREASES ARE DOCUMENTED IN THE LOWER HUALLAGA, AGUAYTIA AND APURIMAC REGIONS, FAR FROM THE PREVIOUS CENTER. OVERALL NATIONAL CULTIVATION MAY HAVE DECLINED, BUT IT IS ALSO STILL SPREADING GEOGRAPHICALLY, GREATLY COMPLICATING SUSTAINABLE LONG-TERM REDUCTION OF PRODUCTION. PERU REMAINS THE SOURCE OF RAW MATERIAL FOR TWO-THIRDS OF THE COCAINE CONSUMED IN THE UNITED STATES. CULTIVATION STILL EXISTING AND SPREADING INTO NEW AREAS IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SATISFY U. S. DEMAND AND FUEL THE ILLEGAL MULTINATIONAL COCAINE INDUSTRY. AN ADEQUATE STRATEGIC COUNTERNARCOTICS CONCEPT MUST PROVIDE A MEANS TO LIMIT, AND ULTIMATELY REDUCE, THIS EXPANDING ILLEGAL COCA CULTIVATION, NOT ONLY IN THE UHV BUT THROUGHOUT ALL AREAS OF THE COUNTRY.